The new federal tax credit on a solar panel system makes an investment financially worthwhile. The actual 14 month production history of a 2919 watt solar system is used to calculate the net present value of the savings on APS electricity bills over the 25 year lifespan of the system. The NPV is estimated at $1,625 with an internal rate of return of 8.3%. The simple payback period is 10.6 years. The estimated savings in terms of carbon dioxide – as opposed to coal based production – is 135 tons of CO2. Sensitivity analysis shows that the projected increase in electricity rates in the future make the investment a substantial hedge against higher energy costs. Although current interest rates are extremely low, future increases in interest rates up to the IRR of 8.3% would make the investment worthwhile. Finally, since the Arizona tax credit is capped at a maximum of $1,000 the IRR changes substantially as smaller systems are analyzed.

09-04 March 2009

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This valuation study is designed to be the first phase of a larger series of studies to value the ecosystem services of the Verde River and its watershed. Interviews were conducted with 35 anonymous community leaders who live in, work with, or manage some aspect of the watershed (or a combination of the three). The interviews resulted in a large list of values for the watershed and provide a starting point for more studies. This report includes preliminary analysis of the data collected from these interviews, a brief literature review on ecosystem services, and recommendations for future research.

This study found that the most valued aspect of the river is not as a place to get things from, but as an entity that is valued for its very existence for a wide variety of reasons, most of which are categorized as “cultural” using the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2003, 2005 a-e) criteria. These cultural values contribute to the quality of life of residents of the area and the entire State of Arizona, as well as visitors who provide the area with much of its economic base.

09-03 March 2009

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We assess the inter-temporal predictive ability of statistically-based, cash-flow prediction models by extending extant work on annual cash-flow prediction models. Our empirical results consistently underscore the superiority of quarterly cash-flow prediction models estimated on a time-series basis versus cross-sectional models. The superiority of relatively parsimonious, time-series models is consistent with the need to incorporate the firm-specific variability of parameters into expectations rather than restricting such parameters to be constant across firms and time when models are estimated cross-sectionally. Additionally, parsimonious models that employ aggregate earnings data are superior to more complex, disaggregated accrual models. The above results are similar regardless of whether models are estimated using undeflated or deflated variables. These results are particularly salient to researchers and users interested in generating accurate multi-step ahead cash-flow forecasts.

Keywords: Cash Flow, Accruals, Time-series

09-02 March 2009

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While a significant amount of research has investigated the relationship between person-organization fit (P-O fit) and multiple individual outcomes, potential mediators of these relationships have been studied less frequently. This study explores psychological empowerment as mediating the relationship between P-O fit and two individual-level outcomes: in-role performance and intention to turnover. Structural equation modeling results suggest that psychological empowerment partially mediates the P-O fit’s relationships with intention to turnover and in-role performance.

09-01 February 2009

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